Realized price LTS
Realized Price (LTS) Indicator
The Realized Price (LTS – Long-Term Supply) is a key on-chain valuation metric that measures the average acquisition cost of coins held by long-term holders. Unlike market price, which fluctuates based on current trading activity, realized price assigns a value to each coin based on the last time it moved on-chain. By focusing on the long-term supply, this indicator highlights investor conviction, market stability, and potential turning points driven by seasoned participants.
Steps to Use the Realized Price (LTS) Metric
1. Understand the Concept:
Realized Price (LTS): The total realized cap of long-term holder coins divided by the total long-term holder supply. It represents the average cost basis of investors holding for the long term (often defined as coins unmoved for 155+ days).
Relevance: Serves as a baseline for long-term investor sentiment and conviction, providing insights into whether the market is trading above or below their average entry price.
2. Interpret the Realized Price (LTS) Metric:
Market Price Above LTS Realized Price: Indicates long-term holders are in profit, often signaling bullish momentum and network strength.
Market Price Below LTS Realized Price: Suggests long-term holders are, on average, underwater — historically associated with bear market lows or capitulation phases.
Flat or Rising LTS Realized Price: Reflects renewed accumulation and increasing confidence among long-term investors.
3. Analyze Historical Patterns:
Bear Market Bottoms: Market price dipping below LTS realized price has often aligned with macro bottoms, where long-term holders endure losses.
Bull Market Phases: Sustained periods of market price staying above LTS realized price signal healthy uptrends and long-term conviction.
Capitulation & Recovery: Sharp declines below LTS realized price, followed by recoveries above it, often mark major turning points in market cycles.
4. Make Decisions:
During Bull Markets: Price significantly above LTS realized price can confirm strong investor confidence, but also caution for potential overheated conditions.
At Market Lows: When price falls below LTS realized price, it may present accumulation opportunities, historically preceding strong recoveries.
During Transition Phases: Crossovers between market price and LTS realized price often indicate upcoming volatility and shifts in market structure.
Tips:
Combine with Other Metrics: Use alongside MVRV, SOPR, or long/short-term supply ratios for a deeper understanding of investor behavior.
Track Crossovers: Pay special attention when market price crosses above or below LTS realized price — these points often mark inflection zones.
Watch Long-Term Trends: A steadily rising LTS realized price generally reflects strong, consistent accumulation by long-term holders.
Context Matters: The signal strength can vary across cycles and should be interpreted within broader macroeconomic and market conditions.
Created By: The Realized Price (LTS) indicator is a widely respected valuation tool in blockchain and on-chain analytics.
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