The Plan B Various composite combines multiple long‑horizon valuation and momentum anchors into one chart to contextualize Bitcoin’s macro cycles.
Price: BTC/USD closing price
RSI color map: momentum overlay highlighting overheated vs undervalued conditions
200WMA: long‑term trend floor proxy
Realized Price: on‑chain average cost basis of holders
Stock‑to‑Flow (S2F) projection: scarcity‑based model line
Price vs 200WMA: approaches to the 200WMA have historically aligned with deep value zones
Price vs Realized Price: sustained reclaim of Realized Price often signals early bull recoveries
RSI colors: red clusters warn of overheated conditions; green clusters highlight undervalued phases
Price vs S2F: large positive deviations can indicate euphoria; negative deviations indicate discount to scarcity model
1. Establish Regime
Price relative to Realized Price and 200WMA to frame bear, recovery, or bull regimes
2. Assess Over/Undervaluation
Compare price to S2F and observe RSI coloring for momentum confirmation
3. Cross‑Validate
Use Realized Price and 200WMA confluence to identify higher‑probability accumulation or risk‑off zones
Treat S2F as contextual, not predictive
Favor long‑term log scale for cycle analysis
Combine with MVRV, NUPL, and Delta Cap for valuation triangulation
Macro allocation timing, cycle stage assessment, and risk management
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