PlanB 200WMA Indicator
200-Week Moving Average (200WMA) Indicator
Summary
The 200-Week Moving Average (200WMA) is a long-term Bitcoin valuation benchmark.
It smooths out price action by averaging the last 200 weeks.
Serves as a “floor” indicator during bear markets.
Highlights long-term trend growth independent of short-term volatility.
Steps to Use the 200WMA Indicator
1. Understand the concept
Moving average: Arithmetic and geometric versions are used.
Time horizon: 200 weeks ≈ 4 years (one halving cycle).
Purpose: Identify Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
2. Interpret the 200WMA Chart
Black line: 200-week arithmetic mean.
Gray line: 200-week geometric mean.
Colored dots (BTC Price): Represent months until halving
3. Analyze Historical Patterns
Bear market lows: Price often touches or slightly dips below 200WMA
Bull markets: Price remains far above the moving average.
Trend growth: 200WMA steadily rises, reflecting adoption and scarcity.
4. Make Decisions
At or near 200WMA: Historically strong long-term accumulation zones.
Above WMA: Reflects confidence, but watch for overheating.
Compare arithmetic vs. geometric: Provides different valuation lenses.
Tips
Use 200WMA as a macro floor model.
Track deviations to identify overvaluation or undervaluation.
Combine with RSI to align timing with momentum.
Monitor halving dots to anticipate supply-driven cycles.
Prefer log scale charts to view exponential growth clearly.
Created By
Created By: This indicator is a widely recognized tool in Bitcoin technical analysis.
Last updated