# PlanB Market Cycle

### Plan B Market Cycle Indicator

The Plan B Market Cycle framework visualizes Bitcoin’s multi‑year cycles by combining long‑term moving averages, valuation anchors, and momentum context to identify macro phases.

### Core Ideas

* Halving‑driven issuance step‑downs provide a structural backdrop
* Long‑term trend floors like the 200WMA anchor cyclical lows
* Valuation and momentum overlays add regime context

### How to Read It

* Recovery: Price reclaims Realized Price and trends toward the 200WMA
* Expansion: Persistent trade above long‑term baselines with strengthening momentum
* Euphoria/Late Cycle: Extended deviations above long‑term anchors and overheated momentum
* Contraction: Mean reversion toward long‑term floors and on‑chain cost basis

### Steps to Use

1. Identify regime via price relative to Realized Price and 200WMA
2. Cross‑check momentum overlays for confirmation
3. Monitor distance from baselines to gauge overheating vs value

### Tips

* Use in log scale for multi‑cycle context
* Combine with MVRV, NUPL, Delta Cap, and Realized Price

### Use Cases

* Macro allocation and risk management across cycle stages

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