PlanB Market Cycle

Plan B Market Cycle Indicator

The Plan B Market Cycle framework visualizes Bitcoin’s multi‑year cycles by combining long‑term moving averages, valuation anchors, and momentum context to identify macro phases.

Core Ideas

  • Halving‑driven issuance step‑downs provide a structural backdrop

  • Long‑term trend floors like the 200WMA anchor cyclical lows

  • Valuation and momentum overlays add regime context

How to Read It

  • Recovery: Price reclaims Realized Price and trends toward the 200WMA

  • Expansion: Persistent trade above long‑term baselines with strengthening momentum

  • Euphoria/Late Cycle: Extended deviations above long‑term anchors and overheated momentum

  • Contraction: Mean reversion toward long‑term floors and on‑chain cost basis

Steps to Use

  1. Identify regime via price relative to Realized Price and 200WMA

  2. Cross‑check momentum overlays for confirmation

  3. Monitor distance from baselines to gauge overheating vs value

Tips

  • Use in log scale for multi‑cycle context

  • Combine with MVRV, NUPL, Delta Cap, and Realized Price

Use Cases

  • Macro allocation and risk management across cycle stages

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